Consumer Durables / Retail Industry Trends 2024

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Growth continues, but credit risk remains elevated among retailers of consumer durables.

27 Sep 2024

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We expect consumer durables sales in advanced markets to rebound further in H2 of 2024 and to accelerate in 2025.
However, credit risk of consumer durables retailers in advanced markets remains elevated, with smaller players especially vulnerable to defaults and insolvency.
Growth in the Asia Pacific region will continue next year, but cool down somewhat compared to 2024, mainly due to lower demand in China.
On a global level, downside risks remain, such as tumbling stock markets, increasing unemployment and volatile commodity prices. All this could rein in household spending.

Despite the recent softening of the US labour market we expect US consumers to keep on spending, supported by gradual disinflation and modest wage gains.
We expect US consumer durables sales growth to level off in 2024, followed by a 1.7% increase in 2025. Consumer electronics sales will grow 4% in 2024, followed by a 3% decrease next year.
For US retailers supply chain and inventory challenges have abated, but they are facing other headwinds. There has been an increase in distressed debt exchanges by retailers recently.

After contractions in 2022 and 2023, we expect consumer durables sales to increase by 0.9% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025.

We expect consumer durables sales to increase by 6.4% in 2024. However, this growth is mainly driven by exports, while domestic sales are subdued.
Next to the ongoing issues in the property sector, The deflationary environment and higher unemployment (in particular among younger people) additionally put a brake on consumer spending.
We expect Chinese consumer durables sales in 2025 to slow down to 1.8% year-on-year. Higher tariffs on Chinese exports to the US after the presidential elections in November are a downside risk.

Sales of consumer durables are predicted to rebound by 14.6% in 2024, after a 9.2% decline last year. The recovery is driven by higher sales of domestic appliances and furniture.
The long-term outlook for consumer durables remains positive due to increasing household purchasing power and a growing middle class.

After a 2.9% contraction in 2023, consumer durables sales in the region are forecast to rebound modestly by 0.6% in 2024. Still tighter monetary policies are holding back higher consumer spending.
We expect consumer durables growth in the European Union to accelerate to 2.8% in 2025, given a more benign inflationary environment and monetary easing.

We expect French consumer durables sales growth to slow down in 2024 and 2025, to 0.9% and 0.4% respectively. Consumers are cautious about spending, although real household income has started to rise and wage increases are outpacing inflation.

After a 2.7% contraction in 2023, consumer durables sales in Germany are expected to decrease again this year, by 0.7%. A softening labour market could trigger further spending restraint in the coming months. At the same time input costs for retailers remain high and credit is expensive.

After contractions in 2022 (-4%) and 2023 (-2.2%), we expect consumer durables sales in the UK to level off in 2024 and to grow by only 0.8% in 2025. Retailers struggle with the lack of a comprehensive demand recovery and higher costs.

Please download the report below to read more about the latest industry performance outlook and credit risk assessment.

Summary